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Is 'ultra-processed' a useful thing to avoid, or just a label?

What the experts say

Nina TeicholzPhD · investigative science journalist and author

A label. Judge the sugar and the flour, not the processing.

What it rests onNOVA classifies a home-baked cookie as merely processed and a store-bought one as ultra-processed, while the science says the cookie is harmful either way because of its sugar and flour. The formal definition uses "mostly" and "many" with no thresholds, which she argues invites lobbying and lets graders' preconceptions decide. The category carries an anti-meat bias: a hamburger counts as ultra-processed, per the system's author in a 2017 interview with her, because of the foods eaten alongside it, while a grilled cheese does not. Her policy prediction is that a rule built on it would remove school lunch meat and leave the chips.

Source: unsettledscience.substack.com ↗
Kevin D. HallPhD · metabolism researcher; formerly Section Chief, Integrative Physiology Section, NIDDK, National Institutes of Health

Useful. When you match everything the nutrition panel measures, people still eat 500 calories a day more.

What it rests onA randomised inpatient crossover trial in which meals were matched for presented calories, energy density, macronutrients, sugar, sodium and fibre still produced 508 kcal/day more spontaneous intake on the ultra-processed arm, with weight tracking intake. The nutrient panel therefore does not capture what drives the extra eating, and matching it is not enough. His own hedge is in the paper's final sentence: limiting ultra-processed foods "may be an effective strategy", n = 20, two weeks per arm, and the trial cannot speak to long-term outcomes.

Overview

Hall is describing 20 adults living on a metabolic ward for four weeks, where every variable except processing was controlled, which is the strongest internal validity anyone has on this question and the weakest external validity.

Teicholz is describing a national food policy applied to school lunches, WIC baskets and military mess halls, where the definition has to survive contact with lobbyists. They are arguing about different objects: a mechanism and a regulation.

Where they agree

Both agree the American food supply needs pushing in a less processed direction, and she says so in the same post. Both agree sugar and refined flour are harmful. Both agree the nutrition panel is not the whole story. Neither claims the NOVA definition is precise: Hall has published on its limitations and she builds her case on them.

What would settle it

Her position would move if a trial isolated processing from sugar and flour in a free-living population over months rather than weeks, which is close to what Hall's follow-up work is trying to do. His position would move if a redefinition that excluded her hard cases (the hamburger, the sausage, the churned butter) produced the same 500-calorie effect.

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