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Crossfire

If I used to smoke, should I get the yearly CT scan for lung cancer?

What the experts say

Vinay PrasadMD, MPH ยท hematologist-oncologist and professor of epidemiology and biostatistics

Ask what the trials showed for deaths from any cause before you agree, because on that measure he says they are negative.

What it rests onHis argument is about which endpoint counts. Deaths from lung cancer specifically do not include the deaths screening itself causes, and he gives the case: a scan finds a small shadow, a needle biopsy punctures the lung, and the patient dies during the procedure, which that measure records as no lung cancer death. Deaths from any cause count every such event, and he says the two main trials are negative on it and that patients should be told so. He also concedes the strongest argument for screening and says the evidence for it has never been published: if early detection meant smaller operations, fewer chest tubes and less chemotherapy, he would support it, but no lung screening trial has reported those numbers, and he invites anyone to send him one that has.

Source: drvinayprasad.com ↗
American Cancer Society Prevention and ScreeningCancer prevention and early-detection guidance

If you are 50 to 80 and smoked at least 20 pack-years, ask your clinician whether annual low-dose CT screening fits you.

What it rests onThe American Cancer Society's 2023 screening guideline recommends annual low-dose CT for people who meet its smoking-history and health criteria, and its own guidance adds that screening does not replace stopping smoking.

Source: cancer.org ↗

Overview

Both are talking about the same people, adults roughly 50 to 80 who smoke or used to smoke heavily, which is unusual and is what makes this a real disagreement rather than two answers to different questions.

Neither is talking about someone who has never smoked, and neither is talking about a scan ordered because of a symptom. Prasad is addressing the person about to say yes at the appointment; the American Cancer Society is addressing the whole eligible population and what the health system should offer it.

Where they agree

More than the headline suggests. Both accept that the scan finds early lung cancers, both send the decision to a conversation with a clinician rather than a rule, and both treat stopping smoking as the larger prize.

The disagreement is about what the trials proved and how much of it should be said out loud: whether finding cancers earlier has been shown to leave people alive longer overall, and whether the harms of the follow-up belong in the same sentence as the benefit.

What would settle it

For Prasad: a published analysis from the existing trials showing what screening did to the treatment people received, smaller operations, fewer chest tubes, less chemotherapy, or a trial showing fewer deaths from any cause. He says so in as many words and asks readers to send him the paper if it exists.

For the American Cancer Society: the guideline is revised on a schedule against new trial evidence, so a large trial reporting no benefit on deaths from any cause, or better data on the harms of following up what the scan finds, is what would move it.

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