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If I eat this way and my cholesterol goes up, does it matter?

What the experts say

Gil CarvalhoMD, PhD · nutrition and aging researcher, creator of Nutrition Made Simple!

Yes. The particle count is the causal agent, so swap the fat.

What it rests onObservational data showing less heart disease and death when saturated fat is replaced with unsaturated fat or whole carbohydrate; a meta-analysis of the fourteen trials meeting minimum quality standards finding a modest reduction in cardiovascular events; and the mechanism that saturated fat raises the number of the lipoproteins he describes as the main causal agent of heart disease. He discounts the 1960s trials cited on the other side because Minnesota lost most of its participants and was interrupted before outcomes could be recorded, and because saturated fat was sometimes replaced with trans-fat margarine.

Source: gilcarvalhomdphd.substack.com ↗
Shawn BakerMD · orthopedic surgeon and strength athlete

Not necessarily. A sharp rise is a minority response, and the usual pattern is benign.

What it rests onHe argues the usual lipid response is a rise in HDL and a fall in triglycerides with a shift toward larger LDL particles, and offers a de-escalation ladder (cut saturated fat, eat only when hungry, add unsaturated fat, consider a less strict version) rather than statin therapy first. The same page says research is putting the entire lipid health hypothesis in question, and gives no source for it.

Source: carnivore.diet ↗

Overview

Baker is describing people already on a strict carnivore diet who have seen a sharp LDL rise, a small and self-selected group. Carvalho is describing the general adult population choosing everyday cooking fats. They are not talking about the same person, and Baker's own advice for the sharp responder is to cut saturated fat, which is Carvalho's recommendation arrived at from the other direction.

Where they agree

Both accept that the lipid response to this diet varies between individuals, that a sharp rise warrants action, and that reducing saturated fat is the first lever when it happens. Both also treat processed meat as worth avoiding.

What would settle it

Outcome data, not lipid data, in long-term adherents: cardiovascular events in people who sustained high LDL on an animal-only diet. Both sides currently reason from mechanism and from short-term markers, which is the standard Carvalho applies to everyone including himself.

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