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Crossfire

For type 2 diabetes, does a ketogenic diet actually beat a Mediterranean one on blood sugar?

What the experts say

Eric Charles WestmanMD, MHS · internist and Associate Professor of Medicine, Duke University

The trial that found no difference was biased against the ketogenic arm, and its own sensitivity analysis favours keto once the medication confound is removed.

What it rests onA published letter making four methodological objections: medication reduction differed between the two periods in a way that affects the primary outcome of HbA1c, adjusting glycaemic change for weight loss removes an advantage of the ketogenic arm, the crossover had no washout so the second period is contaminated, and no power calculation was reported. He quotes the trial's own text that excluding the four participants who discontinued medications produced a significant difference for both HbA1c and HDL cholesterol favouring keto. He opens by applauding the study and declares his equity in Adapt Your Life, Inc. in the same document. Behind the objection sits his own 2008 randomised trial, in which diabetes medications were reduced or eliminated in 95.2 percent of the ketogenic group against 62 percent of the comparison group.

Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov ↗
Christopher D. GardnerPhD · nutrition scientist, Stanford Prevention Research Center

HbA1c did not differ between the two diets, and the medication protocol was matched to each dietary pattern on clinical safety grounds rather than to favour either arm.

What it rests onA randomised crossover trial in 40 adults with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes, each following a well-formulated ketogenic diet and a Mediterranean-plus diet for 12 weeks in random order, with both arms excluding added sugar and refined grain so the comparison isolates legumes, fruit and whole intact grains. HbA1c did not differ at 12 weeks; triglycerides fell more on keto, LDL rose about 10 percent on keto, and nutrient intakes were lower on keto. In his published reply he concedes two points in print: 'The effect of following a practical guideline improves the generalizability but reduces the fairness of the comparison. This could have been highlighted better in the article, we agree', and 'The primary analysis is not adjusted for weight change. It was only in the sensitivity analyses that we report the findings.' He notes 69 percent of participants with type 2 diabetes kept identical regimens across both phases, defends the absent washout as impractical and unethical since it would require regaining weight, and declines a post hoc power calculation on methodological grounds. His conflicts line reads 'The authors report no conflicts of interest.'

Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov ↗

Overview

Both are talking about adults with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes, which is unusually clean for a disagreement like this. The live difference is medication: Westman's evidence base is people whose drugs came down as the intervention, and the whole dispute is about whether a trial that reduced medication differently on the two arms can answer the question at all. Neither side speaks to a person without a glycaemic diagnosis.

Where they agree

Both accept that both diets lowered HbA1c from baseline. Both accept that medication changes complicate the reading. Both are arguing about the analysis of one crossover trial in print, politely, with their names on it, and Westman opens by applauding the study. In a separate free article Westman names Gardner as a colleague whose higher-carbohydrate work he respects and says a world of nothing but keto is 'almost magical thinking'.

What would settle it

A first-period-only analysis of Keto-Med, which Westman asked for and Gardner did not supply. Beyond that, a trial with an identical medication-reduction protocol on both arms, or a parallel-group design that removes the washout question entirely.

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