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After 55, is more protein protective or risky?

What the experts say

Joel KahnMD · cardiologist; MD and Michigan licence confirmed in NPPES, stated triple board certification in internal medicine, cardiovascular medicine and interventional cardiology not confirmed against any certifying body

Do not push protein to 1.8 g per kg a day or beyond once you are past 55.

What it rests onA UK Biobank cohort of 19,420 people without chronic disease at baseline, followed 256,259 person-years with 967 major adverse cardiovascular events, in which intake at or above 1.8 g per kg per day carried 21 percent higher event risk overall, higher all-cause mortality, heart failure, myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death by up to 73 percent, and a 36 percent excess in people over 55 with no significant association under 55. He offers mechanisms as plausible rather than demonstrated: raised IGF-1, saturated fat, absent fibre and phytonutrients, TMAO, Neu5Gc, inflammation, insulin resistance and farming residues. He states the limitation himself: there are always limitations to database studies such as this one.

Source: kahnlongevitycenter.com ↗
Layne NortonPhD · nutrition scientist, coach, and competitive powerlifter

Do not restrict protein for longevity reasons on the current evidence.

What it rests onHis read of the mortality literature is that a large meta-analysis found decreased mortality risk associated with total protein intake and with plant protein intake and a neutral effect for animal protein, and that studies finding harm are likely confounded because higher animal protein intakes travel with higher fat and calorie intakes. He separately holds that human randomised trials show high-protein diets do not harm healthy kidneys, with 'healthy' doing necessary work. He grades his own claim Contested rather than Established and acknowledges in his own writing that the mTOR and IGF-1 argument on the other side is real.

Source: biolayne.com ↗

Overview

Who each is talking to does most of the work here, in two directions. Kahn is addressing people over 55 at an intake level most people never reach, and his own source found no significant association under 55, so this is not advice for adults generally.

Norton is addressing people who train, for whom the protein target exists to serve muscle and function, which Kahn's post does not discuss at all, though he does elsewhere. They may not disagree about plant protein at all: Norton specifically credits plant protein with lower mortality, and plant protein is what Kahn recommends.

Where they agree

More than the framing suggests. Both accept that the observational literature is confounded and say so. Both hold that protein source matters and that plant protein comes out at least as well as animal protein on mortality. Neither is arguing about the RDA. The genuine collision is animal protein at high intakes in people over 55.

What would settle it

A randomised trial of protein intake with hard cardiovascular endpoints in adults over 55, which neither side has and which is the only design that would settle it. Failing that, a cohort analysis that separates animal from plant protein at the high-intake end with adequate adjustment for the total fat and energy that Norton says confounds the association.

Practice does not pick a winner here

You do, and your call is dated, kept, and yours to change. Follow the people you already trust and what they publish turns into a short daily practice.

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